The NFL MVP has been decided, but the Super Bowl futures are still up in the air. We take a look at what’s to come for this year’s game and some of the biggest storylines that will define it.
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12th of October, 2021
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ESPN’s Doug Kezirian
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- Analyst for ESPN Sports Betting
- Daily Wager’s host
- Host of the podcast Behind The Bets
The NFL is beginning to take form after five weeks, and it seems that we have a better idea of which teams are genuine contenders and which ones are just banging on the door. As a result, even if the playoffs aren’t for another three months, the futures market reflects this view.
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Options for the Super Bowl
The Chiefs were blown out in the weekend’s most important game, and they are currently 2-3. We can’t see their difficulties continuing, considering that they’ve only ever succeeded with an MVP quarterback who’s coming off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. While I recognize that things may change, and the Chiefs’ next three opponents are Washington, Tennessee, and the Giants, the Chiefs’ defense is abysmal, and that will most likely be insurmountable. It’s incredible that they only have the third-best odds at +750. I am unable to suggest a play. Keep in mind that the “Super Bowl hangover” has been proved time and time again. Only the 1972 Miami Dolphins and the 2018 Patriots have lost a Super Bowl and then won it the following season.
I described how 20/1 odds looked like a striking price for an emerging Los Angeles Chargers team a week ago in this space. The Chargers now have 16/1 odds after beating Cleveland at home. For two reasons, I still believe it’s a good deal. First, Kansas City is two games behind after that third defeat, and they lost their first match with L.A. at home. Second, the Bolt go to Baltimore on Sunday and, all things considered, have a favorable schedule left.
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What if the Dallas Cowboys’ rising defense is legit? It’s tough to dismiss it simply because of the defense’s inadequacies under a different coach last season, when the team was frequently placed in difficult circumstances by an offense that had lost star quarterback Dak Prescott to injury. Dallas is the only NFL club that has gone 5-0 ATS this season, and at 14/1 odds, it looks like a risky bet. In New England, the Cowboys are suddenly a four-point favorite. Bill Belichick is getting more than a field goal from Mike McCarthy. Prior to the season, the Patriots were a one-point home favorite.
Futures for the Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550 Buffalo Bills +550 Kansas City Chiefs+750 Los Angeles Rams +850 Green Bay Packers +1200 Baltimore Ravens +1200 Arizona Cardinals +1300 Cleveland Browns +1400 Dallas Cowboys +1400 Los Angeles Chargers +1600 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550 Buffalo Bills +550 Kansas City Chiefs +750 Los Angeles Rams +850 Green Bay Packers +1200 Baltimore Ravens +1200 Arizona Cardinals +1300 Cleveland Browns +1400
Options for MVPs
Josh Allen is now a strong MVP candidate, as I anticipated after Buffalo’s victory. He’s currently a +500 betting favorite with Kyler Murray. I just cannot commit to any of the other top five players: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, or Justin Herbert.
At 11/1 odds, I wouldn’t blame anybody for betting on Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford of the NFC. Their clubs, the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams, are tied for first place with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with one loss each and are only one game behind Arizona, which is undefeated. The issue is whether one of them will be able to lead his or her team to the one-seed. Personally, I’d wait a little longer to see if I can predict additional outcomes before attempting to locate value in this one-way market.
Favorite MVPs
+500 Kyler Murray +500 Josh Allen +600 Tom Brady +700 Dak Prescott +700 Justin Herbert +1100 Aaron Rodgers +1000 Lamar Jackson +100 Matt Stafford +1 500 Patrick Mahomes
Other accolades to keep an eye on
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Despite the fact that five quarterbacks were selected in the first 15 selections of this year’s NFL Draft, the betting favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year is now a wide receiver. Ja’Marr Chase (+375) is reconnected with his old college teammate, Burrow, and is tied for second with 5 receiving touchdowns and 456 receiving yards.
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I suggested it last week, and I’ll continue to do so this week. Dak Prescott’s odds of winning Comeback Player of the Year are just -190. It’s about as certain as it gets in the betting industry. The quarterback is presently ranked fourth in MVP odds, and it seems that only a severe injury would damage his chances of winning the award. Joe Burrow (+750) and Jameis Winston (12/1) are also in the running.
The nfl mvp race is a popular topic, with many people interested in the outcome of the race.
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