NFL MVP watch 2021

If you’re a football fan and want to know who the MVP is going to be in 2021, we have just the blog for you.

The “nfl mvp 2021” is a watch that tracks the NFL MVPs. It also includes a timeline of when each player was named MVP and their stats.

In 2021, the NFL is a weird place. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, every club has lost at least two games, marking just the fourth occasion since the 1970 merger that this has happened this early in the season. And parity like this has an influence on how we evaluate the league’s finest players.

This season, no MVP candidate has been faultless, and the battle for the award is razor-thin. Every top candidate, in fact, has at least one perplexing defeat on his résumé. Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson both lost in Week 10 to two-win Washington and Miami teams, respectively. Dak Prescott played late into the fourth quarter in a 30-16 blowout by Denver, while Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson both lost to two-win Washington and Miami teams. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford’s turnovers have also raised attention in recent weeks. The list could go on and on. So, who are the MVP front-runners at the moment?

Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Dan Graziano, Jeremy Fowler, Domonique Foxworth, Kevin Seifert, Field Yates, and Seth Walder were asked to vote on the top players in the MVP race right now by a panel of experts. Then, using Heisman Trophy-style scaling for each rating, we determined how the field stacked up to this point utilizing those ten sets of rankings to offer our top six contenders overall. (Because the race is so tight, we focused on six players instead of the normal five.)

We’ll also take a look at a few players whose MVP prospects have risen or fallen in recent weeks. Finally, ESPN statistics writer Seth Walder discusses an under-the-radar MVP candidate, while ESPN Chalk analyst Doug Kezirian selects his best value bet for MVP right now. There are eight weeks left in the regular season, so there’s still time for the league’s leaders to improve their standings or surprise candidates to emerge, but here’s where things stand heading into Week 11.

All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

Jump to: Top six | Just missed | Under-the-radar stock watch | Value bet


2021 stats: 2,870 passing yards, 28 total touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 65.3 passer rating

Despite falling as a double-digit favorite against Washington for the seventh time in Brady’s career and suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time since arriving in Tampa Bay, the Bucs’ quarterback remains our MVP choice. Aside from his performance against Washington, Brady has been consistently good at 43 years old. (With +400 odds, Brady is the second-best bet in Las Vegas.)

If he passes at least 130 passing yards and three passing touchdowns against the Giants this week, he’ll become the first quarterback since Patrick Mahomes in 2018 to reach 3,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns in his team’s first ten games. Brady now leads the league in throwing touchdowns (27) and has the easiest remaining schedule of any contender, featuring games against the Giants, Jets, and Panthers (twice) to win his sixth MVP award.


2 447 passing yards, 639 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 54.1 QBR in 2021

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Jackson may not be the league’s most outstanding quarterback in terms of statistics, but despite Baltimore’s lengthy series of ailments, he has kept the Ravens’ season alive. In his third season, he has shown that he can be an exceptional passer and carry the weight when his team is playing from behind, dispelling any doubts about his development and limits. Jackson led the Ravens to victories against the Chiefs, Colts, and Vikings despite double-digit deficits.

The Ravens had scored at least 14 points in all 45 of Jackson’s career starts until a heartbreaking 22-10 defeat to Miami. That was the longest such stretch by a starting quarterback in the NFL since 1950, and it speaks to his offensive effect. Jackson will have a decent chance of winning his second MVP award in three seasons (+1100) if he can lead the Ravens to the top seed in the AFC playoffs.


2021 stats: 2,341 passing yards, 21 total touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 58.7 passer rating

Prescott’s return to the Cowboys’ offense (calf) in an ugly Week 9 loss to Denver harmed his MVP chances briefly, but his performance against Atlanta in Week 10 placed him back in the driver’s seat (+700). In the victory against the Falcons, the Dallas quarterback completed a season-high 77.4 percent of his throws for 296 yards and two touchdowns.

Dallas seems to have an offense capable of contending for a Super Bowl with Prescott at the head. This season, the Cowboys lead the NFL in both points per game (31.6) and yards per game (433.9). That was the previous time they achieved it this late in the season, when they won the Lombardi Trophy in 1995.

What’s most amazing is Prescott’s ability to perform under duress. Prescott leads the NFL in QBR when pressed, according to ESPN Stats & Info (69.2). When he is under pressure, his QBR actually rises. Only four quarterbacks in the previous 15 seasons have ended with a better QBR while pressed than when not. Prescott is the only quarterback who can make that claim this season.


2021 stats: 2,276 passing yards, 147 running yards, 20 total touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 63.5 passer rating.


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Murray was last seen in Week 8, when he struggled against Green Bay in prime time (274 yards passing, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, and his lowest completion % of the season) and suffered an ankle injury that kept him out of games against San Francisco and Carolina. Murray created a cushion early in the season by guiding Arizona to a seven-game winning run, but his absence over the last two weeks has harmed his prospects; he is currently +1200 to win the championship in Vegas.

Both Aaron Rodgers and Jackson only missed one game during their MVP seasons in 2020 and 2019, and both were in Week 17, when their teams had already qualified for the playoffs. Murray will need to put up some incredible performances when he returns if he hopes to reclaim the lead in the race.


2021 stats: 2,602 passing yards, 322 running yards, 22 total touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 60.5 passer rating.

After Buffalo’s weird 9-6 defeat at Jacksonville, in which he committed three turnovers, Allen redeemed himself by destroying the Jets’ defense in one of his greatest performances of the season. In a rout, he passed for 366 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. In Vegas, Allen is the current favorite to win MVP, with +250 odds.

With the victory against the Jets, the Bills have now scored 40 points in seven consecutive games started by Allen, three of which have come this season. The Bills meet the reigning Super Bowl champions in Week 14 and New England twice in a four-week stretch in the second half of the season, putting Allen’s resolve to the test.


2021 stats: 3,014 passing yards, 24 total touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 67.1 passer rating

After throwing interceptions on back-to-back drives in back-to-back defeats to Tennessee and San Francisco, Stafford’s MVP odds (+900) took a knock. Those turnovers have been the trigger for Los Angeles’ recent troubles, and despite the efforts of wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who is a secret MVP contender, Stafford hasn’t been able to bring the offense back from early deficits.

Stafford’s most recent difficulties have been on third down. Stafford’s first-down percentage on third-down passes has fallen 32% from Weeks 1 to 8, and he has just one touchdown and two interceptions on third down in those two weeks, compared to five touchdowns and no picks in the first eight weeks.


Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

In his first game back after being activated off the COVID-19/reserve list, the reigning MVP didn’t throw a touchdown, and his stats through eight games are nothing near his finest. Rodgers has thrown for 1,894 yards and 17 touchdowns on 67.1 percent of his deliveries. But, like he did last year at this time, the Packers’ quarterback has shown that he can step into a higher gear to complete the season. Rodgers is poised to accomplish exactly that with his team in position to win the NFC’s overall No. 1 seed, while also strengthening his MVP chances down the road.


Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

Following a 3-4 start, the Chiefs have won three straight games against the Giants, Packers, and Raiders. Mahomes re-entered the MVP debate after tossing five touchdowns in prime time versus Las Vegas. He has the Chiefs in first position in the AFC West and is second in the NFL in passing yards (2,940) and passing touchdowns (25). There’s a case to be made that if Kansas City continues winning and leapfrogs Tennessee in the AFC West, Mahomes will remain in the MVP conversation.

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, and 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel were also among the top-10 picks.

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Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill

During Tennessee’s six-game winning run, Tannehill has slowly established his MVP resume. While star running back Derrick Henry was restricted to 68 rushing yards in a Week 8 win over the Colts, Tannehill stepped up and went 10-for-11 for 155 yards when targeting A.J. Brown. It was the start of an almost unstoppable three-week run for the quarterback-wide receiver combination. Tannehill’s triumph versus Indianapolis was his 17th as a starting quarterback in double-digit deficits, the second most by any quarterback since 2012. Even without Henry, the Titans remain in first place in the AFC South behind Tannehill, having won four games by three points or fewer this season (against Seattle, Buffalo, Indianapolis, and New Orleans).

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Derek Carr is a quarterback with the Las Vegas Raiders.

In September, the Raiders’ quarterback had an MVP-like start, but he has since cooled down. Carr had just five turnovers all season before losing to the Giants in Week 9, but he had a fumble and two interceptions against the Giants, including a pick-six that decided the game. The Raiders have dealt with a lot of off-field turmoil this season, so Carr’s team’s 5-4 record is nothing short of a miracle.

Under-the-radar MVP possibility for Walder


Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

When was the last time Mahomes was referred to be a “under-the-radar” player? I’ll take advantage of the situation while I can. Mahomes has not been as as effective as we had hoped, but he does have a volume case. He’s just gotten more opportunities than any other quarterback. Despite his QBR rating of 10, Mahomes’ points over average (the amount of points he has created above a player with a 50 QBR and the same number of action plays) is seventh, one position ahead of Murray. Let’s not dismiss him just yet.


Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott

If Dallas can get the desired No. 1 seed in the NFC, Prescott at +700 sounds like a good MVP payoff. The Cowboys’ schedule is pretty simple the rest of the way, and Prescott’s stats are among the best in the NFL.

The “nfl mvp 2020” is a prediction of the NFL MVP for the 2021 season. It’s based off of the current standings and who has been performing well.

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